In recent years, the global auto industry has been experiencing a disruption in worldwide sales. 尽管消费者需求旺盛, actual sales numbers dove sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic due to supply chain problems and other factors—then 开始恢复 in 2021. Estimates suggest 2023 sales figures will still come in below 2019’s totals.

Car sales may be in flux, but people are not necessarily less mobile. Enthusiasm for bikes and scooters (especially in dense urban areas) shows that alternative modes are being sought. New trends are emerging, such as micromobility original equipment manufacturers (e.g.、电动滑板车、电动自行车等.) that are pivoting to direct-to-consumer sales instead of B2B. The ubiquitous mobility sharing platforms (e.g., Spin and Lime) are also adapting revenue models to consider new consumer needs by offering daily, 每月, 甚至是年租计划.

There are other underlying reasons contributing to a reduction in the volume of car sales. 第一个, players from different regions and industries—normally outside the traditional automotive set—are gaining ground. The automotive industry has become appealing to a wider pool of investors: tech companies, 风险投资基金, 私募股权公司. New stakeholders are dominating investment volumes in automotive and mobility startups. 此外, 新区域, 尤其是在亚洲, are gaining more significance within automotive production.

A growing wave of technology-driven megatrends is redefining mobility. 汽车产品正在发生变化, with electronics and software growing in prominence in terms of their value in a vehicle. Such features require skills outside traditional core competencies of automotive engineering. Vehicle software content is estimated to grow at a compound annual rate of 11%, making up to 30% of vehicle value by 2030.

The Trends Transforming the Future of Mobility

The next decade will see a range of innovative headwinds shift the dimensions of mobility toward new horizons. Changing consumer needs are key, with the industry progressively 移动 from an ownership model toward a Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) access model, 尤其是对年轻一代来说. Three pillars have given rise to this change:

1. 备选动力系统选项
2. 电动汽车的进步
3. 按需服务接入普及

Social phenomena are influencing the rise of MaaS—increasing urbanization, 人口增长, and environmental concerns provide favorable conditions. New mobility forms are required to address those factors, which is leading to predictions that our contemporary vehicle-centric system of fossil fuel-powered mobility will gradually be replaced by a consumer-centric one run on electricity.

Mobility is seeing a pronounced growth of investment in new technologies, which are influencing the industry’s transformation. E-hailing (virtually ordering a transportation service), 半导体, and sensors are the principal areas of focus, all contributing to the 发展 of driving assistance systems and autonomous driving.

一般, the automotive industry has been an engine of innovation because cars combine multiple technologies: chemical, 机械, 电, 还有数字的. Cars are productive data centers—and increasingly—parts of larger mobility networks due to leaps in computing power, data generation through sensors and 相机, 廉价的数据存储. 例如, if we look at e-hailing services and real-time data navigation systems (e.g., Waze), they offer both efficient and complementary services to existing urban mobility solutions.

互联互通进展, 支付技术, and voice and gesture identification allow automakers opportunities to develop innovative cockpits that can provide new kinds of content and enable in-vehicle commerce: e.g., in-vehicle digital wallets that allow the purchase of items directly from the car. 除了, Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technology is gaining ground, providing a wider picture of a vehicle’s surroundings than traditional line-of-sight sensors (e.g., 相机, radar, and lidar), which makes it possible to detect connected objects in the proximity.

Modular 设计 will play an important role 在未来的流动性 due to the changing function of the car. Many automakers are presenting multipurpose concept vehicles that can be utilized to carry people while providing more functionality for other uses, 例如物品递送.

Considering the trends reshaping the industry, the most interesting ones that will drive innovation over the next decade are likely to be:

1. 电气化
2. 自主驾驶
3. Vehicle-to-Everything
4. Mobility-as-a-Service

1. 电气化是日益增长的力量

随着汽车技术的发展， 新用例 for electric vehicles (EVs) will arise for them. Currently, electric vehicles constitute a small fraction of total global automotive sales.

The global share of EVs is expected to increase as government regulation ramps up incentives to encourage adoption. 更严格的排放和燃油经济性 目标 at national, state, and city levels are expected to continue, especially in Europe and China. 除了, the cost to produce lithium-ion batteries, 最常用的格式, 正在下降, suggesting future advancement in manufacturing and scaled production of EVs. Incremental steps to reduce EV costs will inevitably assist mass consumer adoption.

Furthermore, mobility industry integration with electricity grids is emerging. There is broader access to charging infrastructure, even if EV charging can create local constraints and stability problems on power networks—while in other cases, electricity companies are attempting to use EV batteries to help stabilize grids, a sign that renewables are becoming more diffused into incumbent networks.

在短期内, automakers are facing challenges of selling enough EVs to comply with rigid fleet emission regulations and fuel economy 目标 while retaining profitability. The urgency of this is encouraging rapid transformation—automakers are investing in startups to expand knowledge and expertise, 并利用变化.

2019 set investment records for electric cars, with automakers committing 2250亿美元 to develop new EV models over the next several years. 具体地说, Volkswagen (VW) led the way with an investment of 440亿美元, with a goal of abandoning the 发展 of fossil fuel-run vehicles by 2026 到2030年电动汽车销量达到40%. Another significant investment was made by 福特, which poured 5亿美元 进入电动卡车初创公司Rivian. These are just some examples of initial investment—automotive companies have also set aside staggering amounts of money on research, 设计, 发展, 准备生产.

Startups are currently focused on improving battery technology and building charging infrastructure for public and residential use. BMW and Daimler directed investment into charging infrastructure startup ChargePoint to help build out charging networks aimed at supporting their EVs. Volvo has also invested in FreeWire, a startup that delivers quiet mobile power and fast charging.

电动汽车领域的先驱是特斯拉, which was once the highest valued automaker in the world with a market capitalization of $1.2万亿年. 据估计这家公司的价值 3410亿美元 in early 2023—more than many long-standing OEMs around the world, 包括通用汽车, 福特, 丰田, 和大众. This indicates that the market and investors value innovation and the market potential for electric vehicles and related products.

成立于2003年, Tesla has reached technological leadership by producing a full range of increasingly affordable electric cars. Its vertical and horizontal integrations into solar roofs, 国内电池, and wholesale solar power stations with energy storage have augmented its knowledge base, 规模的努力, 以及社会影响.

2. Autonomous Driving Will Reshape How We Move

The progressive evolution of automotive technology promises greater safety benefits through Automated Driving Systems (ADS) that, 在未来的流动性, could make fully driverless cars a reality.

Self-driving vehicles will progressively integrate six levels of driver assistance technology advancements over the coming years. 六个级别从0级开始, which requires human drivers to do all driving tasks, 至第5级, where vehicle ADS performs in every situation. 中级水平(国家公路交通安全管理局) still require human drivers to monitor the environment and perform some tasks.

• 0级-无自动化: 零自主性，驾驶员执行所有任务.
• 一级-驾驶辅助: Vehicle is controlled by driver, some driving assistance features may be included in vehicle 设计.
• 第2级-部分自动化: 车辆具有综合自动化功能, 比如加速和转向, but driver must remain engaged with the driving task and monitor the environment at all times.
• 3级-有条件自动化: Driver is a necessity but is not required to monitor the environment. The driver must be ready to take control of the vehicle at all times.
• 4级-高度自动化: Vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions under certain conditions. The driver may have the option to control the vehicle.
• 5级-完全自动化: Vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions under all conditions. The driver may have the option to control the vehicle.

自主驾驶 offers significant benefits such as increased safety, 节省了时间, 非驾驶者的移动性, 减少环境危害, 降低了运输成本. 关于人身安全, already a number of current vehicles use a combination of hardware (sensors, 相机, and radar) and software to help vehicles identify certain risks and avoid crashes.

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology adoption will be 进化, and predictions for the roll out of cars with Level 4 autonomy 继续变换. 与此同时, improvements in sensor technology and machine vision software are enabling semi-autonomous driving. Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) includes new capabilities such as adaptive cruise control, 自动制动, 以及交通和车道偏离警告, which enhance driver capabilities and assist in case of distraction or tiredness.

在硬件方面, improvements have been made in automotive sensors that help vehicles detect and manage surroundings—a significant feature for driver assistance technology. Each sensor offers different strengths: Cameras recognize colors and fonts, 雷达探测距离和速度, and lidar creates highly accurate 3D renderings of surroundings. 然而, these sensors also have some constraints and cannot be used in isolation given the detection accuracy needed for semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles.

According to a market research report by Next Move 战略咨询, the Global Advanced Driver Assistance System market size was $20.70亿年 in 2021 and anticipated to grow to nearly $75 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.2%.

European automotive giants are leading the way in ADAS 发展s, aided by advanced manufacturing resources and governmental assistance, such as through the European New Car Assessment Programme safety standards, which encourage the integration of the technology.

Some automakers are prioritizing advanced driver assistance rather than full autonomy. 例如, 丰田’s goal of developing a vehicle that is “不能引起撞车的” suggests a future that is not necessarily driverless. 尽管如此, other automakers still want to achieve full autonomy, and the market value is projected to reach roughly 800亿美元 by 2025. Another interesting trend is the more immediate business application of autonomous driving for item delivery, as 承认 Alphabet公司.Waymo部门. Other industry players are also participating in the race for autonomy, 最著名的是处理器制造商NVIDIA, which is commercializing its technologies into driving areas.

Investors remain confident in companies developing the fully autonomous driving stack. 正如我们在 article 关于汽车行业的软件, General Motors began the acquisition self-driving technology startup Cruise Automation in 2016 for $1 billion and 买下了 另一位投资者的股份为2美元.2022年10亿美元. Hyundai plans to spend $5 billion in US self-driving technology and robotics by 2025, 一项包括莫蒂在内的投资, a mobile technology company that is currently testing robo出租车 on US public roads. Volkswagen’s software unit, Cariad, is earmarking more than $2 billion for a 与地平线机器人公司合作 to create autonomous driving chips for the Chinese market.

Two of the biggest and most well-known players in autonomous driving are Cruise and Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet that is building a public ride-hailing service.

3. Vehicle-to-Everything Will Simplify Lives

V2X refers to Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communication: wireless technology that enables data exchange between vehicles and their surroundings. 具体地说, V2X technology can solve the issue of sensors that can’t detect objects outside the line of sight by enabling cars to wirelessly communicate with connected devices on other cars, 行人, 道路基础设施. When devices are connected to the same wireless network, V2X enables cars to detect the movement of objects outside the field of vision, ensuring safety beyond the traditional line-of-sight sensors. 通过共享数据, 比如位置和速度, to surrounding vehicles and infrastructure, V2X communication systems enhance driver awareness of potential risks.

V2X technology can enhance traffic efficiency by providing warnings for upcoming traffic congestion, 选择路由, and reduced CO2 emissions through adaptive cruise control. Such technology will help mitigate traffic and minimize fuel costs for individual vehicles. The V2V communication segment, with its focus on safety 措施, is 预测 to have the largest share of the automotive V2X market. The Cadillac CTS and Mercedes Benz E-Class vehicles are already on the road and equipped with V2V technology.

Adoption of V2X is still in its early stages; few corporations and startups are working on the technology, 甚至更少的人在测试它. 然而, automotive V2X is projected to grow at a CAGR of 17.61% from 2017 to 2024 to reach a market size of $84.从27亿美元到2024年的620亿美元.2017年190亿美元.

The main drivers of market growth in V2X are increasing concerns about transportation pollution and the growing trend toward safe, 连接车辆. Along with a variety of hardware and service providers, OEMs are working to develop their own V2X protocols, data, 措施, and processes as part of their own ADS or ADAS platforms.

4. Mobility-as-a-Service Is Redefining the Navigation of Cities

MaaS is principally driven by alternative powertrains, EVs, and on-demand business models. Shifts are encouraging the replacement of the current vehicle-centric system of mobility with a more efficient consumer-centric one. Originally focusing on ride hailing and subsequently on car sharing, MaaS has recently expanded into bikes and scooters (areas often referred to as micromobility) due to a surge in investor interest and rapid consumer adoption. The light vehicles used in micromobility provide short-distance transport solutions for urban dwellers.

MaaS enables users to book various transportation services from apps, 选择电动自行车, e-scooters, 出租车, or public transportation services in various combinations throughout their journey. MaaS has emerged as a viable alternative to personal vehicle ownership, 在很多情况下, it facilitates mobility across cities with subpar public transportation options.

MaaS platforms are arguably a more effective use of transport, given that personal vehicles are unused for 95% 当天的. 分享d mobility also allows users to avoid costs associated with ownership like insurance, 税, 维护, and parking while still taking riders from point A to point B. 一般, the field of MaaS is broad, with four macro-themes at play:

1. 个人使用的软件(例如.g.Zipcar)
2. 改善公共交通(例如.g.Citymapper)
3. 共享移动服务(例如.g.BlaBlaCar)
4. 商业用途(e).g.CargoX)

向智能交通的转变已经开始, but to effectively achieve a societal shift, the adoption of a new way of thinking and widespread MaaS platform integrations is required. Users should be able to plan and pay for journeys by train, bus, 税i, etc., using a single application or pay for an “all-in” subscription at a fixed price. Applications need to strive to manage all client transportation needs.

MaaS interfaces are 移动 toward deeper integration with transport network tools and journey planners to assist with real-time planning and in-app services like payment, 预订, 和票务. Startups and automakers have also started to offer subscription services as an alternative to buying or leasing vehicles. While leases lack owners up to a few years at a time, such subscriptions allow users to rotate cars throughout the term.

In order to overcome profitably issues faced by sharing platforms, new efficiency-driven fleet management platforms are sprouting up. The pandemic has highlighted difficulties related to operations and fleet management, which has led to increased focus on driving down costs through efficiency. 在美国，Superpedestrian就是一个例子.

Some of the most relevant players dealing with shared mobility and MaaS services are the ubiquitous Uber, Lyft, 鸟, 现在分享, 和Cabify. 除了, several interesting startups have recently emerged, 包括Zoox, 通过, UbiGo, 和SkedGo.

随着车辆成本的增加, companies are looking at many commercialization models that will appeal to a wide consumer base. 例如, vehicles in the future could be fully loaded with software and hardware features that can be purchased for specific periods of time, 即使是一次骑行. This flexibility not only allows consumers on-demand access to state-of-the-art technology and features, but also reduces complexity during manufacturing by reducing the number of different production configurations and traditional “trim packages.” A setup of this kind also opens the door for royalty business models in which multiple providers could offer services and products through common platforms in which an ecosystem of partners find creative ways to boost income and make technology accessible.

巨大的颠覆带来巨大的机遇

Companies and organizations should consider how to grow properly across multiple markets and segments, and how their supporting operating models are structured. A new combination of cross-sectoral capabilities is required to build reliable solutions to move people and goods. Increased collaboration among players acting in different sectors will become essential for fostering innovation.

From a private sector perspective, change will not be driven by one company or industry. 而不是, it will require unprecedented collaboration in order to develop precise and integrated mobility solutions, 尤其是在科技巨头中, which have the financial capabilities to support research and innovation in these industries.

从公共部门的角度来看, 公私合作, 以大型高科技公司为代表, 必须尽可能多地鼓励. 特别是, governments should support the 发展 of the four emergent trends highlighted in this article, with consideration toward how to drive investment into areas that can be harnessed for national gain.

The disruption is likely to be huge, and it will bring both great opportunities and risks.